Suprio's blog: Threads day one - four observations and a prediction

Fifty million downloads and counting in less than 24 hours. That puts even ChatGPT to shame. Meta’s Twitter clone has arrived with a bang. I am a bit of a sucker for new products, especially those that have any connection with news, brands, advertising, and human connections. This is what I observed:

 

The Instagram move: The sign-up process was super slick, the moment you open the app it latches on to your Instagram account, takes your details, created your handle, and automatically follows your connections and sends them friend requests. You are open and running in 30 seconds. This use of Instagram is a masterstroke.

 

According to Statista in January 2023, globally Instagram had two billion MAUs (monthly active users). Twitter had 556 million. Now, the 50 million downloads don’t sound that many, does it? 

 

According to Bloomberg, India has 400 million Instagram users and Twitter has just 24 million. Every Instagram user is a potential sign-up for Threads and globally if 10% join, that’s 200 million users. It could happen in a week.

 

Algorithm vs who you follow: It became apparent quite quickly that Threads was being powered by the Instagram algorithm, the feed was being driven by my connections interests and I was seeing conversations that I may not have expected on Twitter. I use Twitter pretty much as a newsreader that throws up tweets about who I follow. Interspersed with rantings from Musk and incessant posts on how I am using ChatGPT all wrong.

 

Bad news for news: Algorithm-driven posting is not good for news brands. As Jessica Lessin of The Information put it in The Briefing this morning:

 

Quality news doesn’t perform well in a model where the algorithm is trying to serve you something to keep you scrolling. There’s a reason the Facebook app deemphasised news years ago. And there’s a reason Instagram is not a huge referral source for quality news publishers. 

 

Twitter is (or at least was) a different beast. With more of a focus on whom you follow, people used it as a news reader by following select news accounts and keeping up with their tweets. 

 

But by swinging so hard to algorithmically recommended content, Meta is dropping that utility and turning Threads into a way for interesting (read: funny, provocative) conversations with friends. 

 

Good for brands: This is Meta we are talking about, while there are no ads on Threads as of now, it’s just been one day. It’s inevitable and like Instagram, it will be good for brands and not very good for the randomness that made early Twitter so much fun. As this Techcrunch article puts it:

 

Threads’ pedigree all but ensures a total bifurcation between the kind of content that brands, celebrities, organisations and governments make and the unhinged terminally online posts that Twitter was once known for. The former will have a cosy home on Threads, but the latter is unlikely to thrive there.

 

On Threads, there are no ads for now. But recall that Facebook allowed Instagram to flourish for years virtually ad-free — a version of the app that’s almost impossible to recall now that Instagram users must now choke down a truly prodigious amount of advertising to do anything at all on the app. 

 

It’s too early to play the prediction game, after all, it’s day one. Folks are complaining about the lack of features like DMs, those will get sorted. The question is will this kill Twitter, that is if the current powers don’t kill it themselves? 

 

The better question is if Threads is going to be a better Twitter. I have a feeling that it will be a different space altogether – a venn of people on Insta and Twitter who like fashion, brands, celebrities, and conversations. And who can tolerate a lot of advertising. 

 

The author is a business consultant, advising companies on growth. In a previous avatar, he was the chief strategy officer at The Economist.